American workers’ confidence in their ability to change jobs has reached a historic low, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, released Monday.
The survey’s “expected quit rate,” which measures the mean probability of voluntarily leaving a job within the next year, fell by 2.8 percentage points to 15.9%, marking a new series low. Concurrently, the perceived likelihood of finding new employment within three months after a layoff declined by 1.6 percentage points to 44.0%, remaining just above the record low observed in December.
Expectations for earnings growth also weakened, decreasing by 0.2 percentage points last month to a figure just below the 12-month average of 2.6%. This decline was primarily driven by respondents aged 40 and older. Furthermore, the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher in twelve months dipped by 2.0 percentage points to 39.9%.
Regarding inflation, median one-year-ahead expectations edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0% in February, while remaining unchanged at 3.0% for the three-year and five-year horizons.
These findings follow recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing a net loss of approximately 92,000 nonfarm jobs in February, reversing the previous month’s gain. The national unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, representing 7.6 million unemployed Americans—an increase of about 203,000 from January.
The unexpected labor market shift occurs amid relatively stable measures of consumer sentiment. Analysts note that while sentiment gauges economic outlook, actual spending behavior is also shaped by financial capacity and perceived risk. As PYMNTS Senior Research Analyst Matt Albrecht, Ph.D., explained, “Confidence is ‘how I feel about the outlook’; capacity is ‘can I maintain or increase spending or absorb a shock and still pay my bills,’ and spending responds to both.”
